Vitamins & Supplements - Sales Forecasting

The Brief

Our client needed to estimate sales volume for a new product to inform a go / no-go decision on product launch. There was a need to assess market potential across different product executions and pricing strategies, and to simulate scenarios with and without ATL marketing support. Further to this, the client wanted to understand consumer reactions to the new product and identify areas for optimisation.

The Approach

Nature employed a 4 cell design for monadic exposure to the new product, with an online virtual shelf. Share of basket analysis was undertaken across designs and price points, and between pre and post exposure to detailed information on the new product. Product and packaging diagnostics were also captured through direct questioning to understand what was working well and identify areas where optimisation was required.

The Result

An estimate of potential product sales with and without ATL marketing support provided the client with evidence that the product is viable and should be progressed further through the internal gateway framework. From a product perspective, a number of changes were made to maximise success at launch, including revised packaging message hierarchy, revised claims, greater SKU differentiation, and an adjustment to information provided on the back of pack.